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DATE:17-08-2011
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Nifty (Spot) Support for the day exists at 5010-4980 and Resistance to the up-move is at around 5070-5120. Global cues to dictate the trend. More ever consolidation is expected with low volumes.We guess the best thing that one can say is broadly we are in the zone of 5000- 5250. That’s the pullback consolidation phase for the market because it fell one way to sub-5000. We pulled back a little bit. Now, we are going through that side ways slightly lower volume side of consolidation. |
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Things have stabilised a little bit globally. But it seems like a pullback that the global markets are witnessing. In the pullback, volumes have become half of what they were last week, when the panic was playing out. So, looking at the global screen, it appears that there is a little bit of a pullback from the huge damage which happened just preceding it. The S&P fell of 10-12% in just a matter of days and it would always have got that rebound. So from that low of 1,100, it’s gone back to 1,200. But it has picked up crude with it as well, which has gone back to USD 110 per barrel, which is not good news for us. The USD has given up a little bit.When you look at all the asset classes, they have probably done a bit of retracement. The level of volatility, which was running very high, too high to sustain, has subsided a bit and that you would have expected to see. So, yes, we will get probably our own share back as well. But it’s very premature to say that global markets are out of the woods from this rough summer that they seem to be going through.
Next few days are tricky. We’ll probably work our way up a little bit. But it’s still not a great trough for us because global markets still remain quite edgy. Crude has gone back to USD 110 per barrel. The tone that the Reserve bank is singing for the last few days seems to be suggesting that they are not done with raising interest rates yet. So, we still remain in an elevated inflation interest rates scenario and that headwind hasn’t quite vanished yet.
Global headwinds are still there in the system. So, periodically we will get these pull backs because the sell-offs now a days are quite intense. But we still think at best we work with a bit of a trading range out here. The discomfort is that we don’t think anybody sitting in India can say with any degree of conviction that we have put in a low for the index for the year already. |
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Broader indices took huge beating as compared to benchmarks with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices losing around 2%, led by fund based selling in infrastructure stocks. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 75 points, to close at 16,765 and the 50-share NSE Nifty lost 37 points, to end at 5,036. Indian equities were looking for some recovery following positive US cues in the morning trade with the Sensex beginning above the 17,000 mark but this was cut short in the between. Benchmarks shaved off all their early gains in the last couple of hours of trade – especially after European markets’ opening. |
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