Stock Market View and nifty Outlook for January 12th, 2012 (12/01/2012)
Share Market View and nifty Outlook for January 12th, 2012 (12/01/2012)
Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA yesterday, on the closing basis, but it is still trading below its 50-Days SMA.
A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. The level of 4550 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY. The level of 4800 as mentioned earlier was acting as a strong resistance for NIFTY, since last one month, which it crossed successfully on the closing basis yesterday.
Now, the level of 4950 (61.80% Level of Retracement) will act as an important resistance for it. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.
On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Money Supply M2+CD, Eco watchers Survey: Outlook, Eco Watchers Survey: Current and Machine Order Tools for the month of December. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for the month of December will be coming out in CHINA. GERMANY will be announcing its Consumer Price Index for the month of December.
Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production for the month of November, BOE Asset Purchase Facility for the month of January and also BoE (Bank of England) will be announcing its Interest Rate Decision in U.K. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with its Industrial Production for the month of November and also ECB (European Central Bank) will be coming out with its Interest Rate Decision.
Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Business Inventories for the month of November, NIESR GDP Estimate (3M), Monthly Budget Statement and Retail Sales for the month of December will be announced in U.S. INDIA will be coming out with its IIP (Index of Industrial Production) Data for the month of November.
Q2 FY12 Results Season will be commencing from tomorrow. Some of the important results to be announced are of INFY, HDFC, DCB, and TTK PRESTIGE.
Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors.
Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4880 / 4920 / 4950 levels. At the same time, 4820 / 4780 / 4750 will act as major intraday support levels.
Contributed By: Sonal Natani MS(Finance), ICFAI, Hyderabad.
Equity Research Analyst, Indore